Bloomberg.com: Gay-Marriage Opponents Divorced From Reality:

Albert R. Hunt
Commentary by Albert R. Hunt
June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Desperate times, it is said, call for drastic measures.
In the U.S., the Republican Party is certainly desperate; it's in fundamentally worse shape in 2008 than in any election since Watergate. It's not surprising, therefore, that some conservatives want to capitalize on the recent ruling by the California Supreme Court overturning a ban on gay marriage to galvanize voters in the national elections.
The court decision will deliver a generation of children ``straight into the arms of the homosexual activist community,'' warns James Dobson, the Christian evangelical leader. Dobson is calling on citizens in California and elsewhere to mount a protest.
That dog, as they say in the American South, won't hunt this time. The gay-marriage issue, seized on by President George W. Bush's former political guru, Karl Rove, may have been moderately helpful to Republicans in 2004; it won't distract voters from other concerns -- like the economy, health care and the war in Iraq -- in 2008.
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain seems to have little interest in trying to take advantage of the ruling; he opposes gay marriage, yet has no inclination to demagogue the issue and knows this is a big-stakes, big-issues election, not one to focus on peripheral matters.
He also knows it's a long-term loser for Republicans. One reason the party's fundamentals are so bad in this election is the huge shift of younger people -- those between 18 and 29 -- from being swing voters to overwhelmingly Democratic; they're also turning out to vote in higher numbers. They are driven by concern about the economy and the war, as well as by revulsion over what they see as Republican intolerance.
Changing Public Opinion
National surveys by groups such as the Pew Research Center indicate that a growing number of voters support gay marriage. A Field Poll last week showed that California voters, by a margin of 51 percent to 42 percent, favor it, while 68 percent of young people feel that way.
Unlike in 2004, the issue can't be easily painted in partisan strokes. California's Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, opposes any effort to overturn the 4-3 decision of the Republican-dominated state Supreme Court, which consists of only one Democrat.
Eroding Argument
And the arguments against gay marriage are eroding. While critics say it destroys the institution of marriage, there's no evidence of that. Massachusetts sanctioned gay marriages four years ago, and there have been no reported incidents of straight couples splitting because of it; indeed, the initial furor has died down as people realize this doesn't threaten anyone.
Far more insidious is the 50 percent divorce rate in the U.S. and that a third of all children are born to a single mother; that's three times the rate of four decades ago.
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